Weather

May 24, 2011 6:33 AM by Nichole Larkey & AP

Repeat deadly storms "unusual but not unknown"

WASHINGTON (AP) - Weather experts said it's unusual for deadly
tornadoes to develop a few weeks apart in the U.S. But what made
the two storm systems that barreled through a Missouri city and the
South within the last month so rare is that tornadoes took direct
aim at populated areas.
The tornado that hit Joplin, Mo., on Sunday killed at least 116
people and marked the nation's deadliest single tornado in almost
six decades. The series of twisters that swept through the South
late last month killed more than 300 people. Both disasters leveled
entire communities.
Such a pair of weather events is "unusual but not unknown,"
said tornado researcher Howard B. Bluestein of the University of
Oklahoma. "Sometimes you get a weather pattern in which the
ingredients for a tornado are there over a wide area and persist
for a long time. That's what we're having this year."
And the threat is continuing, he said, noting more storms are
predicted over the next few days.
Other than the death toll, there was nothing too unusual about
the Joplin storm, he added. The conditions were right and
thunderstorms were forecast.
"This is a situation where the tornado went right through a
town. If had been 10 miles away, far fewer people would have been
affected," Bluestein said.
Urban sprawl into the countryside has increased the odds that
tornadoes will affect more people, said Joshua Wurman, president of
the Center for Severe Weather Research in Boulder, Colo. He likened
the situation to barrier islands, where more and more homes are
being built in areas prone to hurricanes.
Forecasters can't tell very far in advance where the path of
destruction is going to be, added Greg Carbin, warning coordination
meteorologist for the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. A
lot of tornadoes hit open spaces, so "when you move to major
population centers, the death toll can climb."
Carbin also noted that a single tornado hit in Missouri, while
several tornadoes swept across six Southern states last month.
Experts are reluctant to attribute specific weather events to
climate change, and National Weather Service Director Jack Hayes
said that was the case with these tornadoes. Determining the cause
will require much more research, he said.
Scientists are looking for ways to prevent high death tolls, in
part by developing better warnings and getting people to heed them,
said Jerry Brotzge, a research scientist at the Center for Analysis
& Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma.
A tornado warning could be issued for an entire county while the
actual twister may cover only a few miles or less, he said. Plus,
people often look outside because "they need some kind of
confirmation, they want to see it," Brotzge said, adding that
people need to take cover underground.
Joplin residents had about a 20 minute warning, though a
powerful rainstorm obscured it from some directions and "they
wouldn't have seen it coming," he said. Bluestein added that rain
makes it easier to detect by radar, but for spotting, "it's very
dangerous because you could be out in front of the storm and not
aware of it."
The Southerners had as much as a 24-minute warning, but those
storms were too powerful and wide to escape. Entire towns were
leveled, from Tuscaloosa, Ala., to Bristol, Va. It was the
deadliest tornado outbreak in the U.S. since April 1974.
"The issue we haven't grappled with is how to warn a major
urban area," Brotzge said. "We saw that with (Hurricane) Katrina.
We saw that with Tuscaloosa. People were warned very well but still
had high fatalities."
There is no practical technology to interfere with twisters.
Tornadoes have even been known to hit mountains without

dissipating, said Thomas W. Schmidlin, a geography professor at
Kent State University who studies twisters.
"It's just been a bad year" for storms striking populated
areas, Schmidlin said.

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