Posted: Aug 21, 2013 3:53 PM by Daniel Phillips
When it has come to the tropics this season is has been so far, so good. With only five named storms so far, and none of them being hurricanes it has certainly been quieter then some early season forecasts predicted.
It is still a little early, however, to breathe a major sigh of relief as we are just now starting to get into prime time for tropical development. The last few weeks of August and September have accounted for more storms historically then other times of the year. The month of August can account for 27 percent of tropical systems, while September is even busier at 34 percent.
Even though the official storm total forecast was recently changed, with the number of storms lowered, it still called for an above average year of activity. Glancing at a calendar and it is clear that we are just getting into the peak time of the year, and the forecast still called for a 47 percent chance a major storm struck the coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas.
There is still a fair amount of dust coming off of north Africa, so at least in the short term, it appears the tropics will stay quiet. This time of year, however, it does not take much for one to start spinning up.
We got a good reminder of how quickly the tropics can change, with the system that threatened to turn tropical and move toward the coast. As always the best thing to do during hurricane season is to be prepared, especially now that we are entering the prime time for tropical development.