Posted: Sep 11, 2013 4:07 PM by Rob Perillo
Acadiana's late summer weather pattern will continue into this weekend while a disturbance over the Yucatan is expected to develop in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Daytime temperatures will likely stay several degrees above normal, pushing the mid-90s through Saturday as rain chances stay relatively low. There may be a slightly better chance of storms late Friday into Saturday as yet another fizzling front approaches Louisiana.
It could get a little breezier locally this weekend in response to building high pressure north of the region while low pressure develops well to our south.
A weak but organized area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday afternoon will likely emerge in the Bay of Campeche/Southwestern Gulf Thursday with conditions expected to favorable for development in this area through the weekend.
Most models are developing a tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche with slow and possibly erratic motion expected into the weekend. Generally though, this feature is expected to continue to move west-northwestward into Mexico by the latter part of the weekend.
Most of the moisture with this system should stay well south of Louisiana but some heavy rainfall could slip into Southern Texas and into the lower Hill Country, areas in need of rain.
Breezy easterly winds in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend could lead to increasing tides along the Louisiana Coast with swells keeping conditions offshore rather unfavorable for recreational activity.
If the disturbance heading for the Gulf is upgraded to a storm, the next name will be "Ingrid".
Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Humberto in the far Eastern Atlantic is expected to weaken beyond 24 hours while Tropical Storm Gabrielle, or the remnants thereof, should brush by the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
Another weak westward-moving disturbance east of the Leeward Islands remains disorganized.
Interestingly enough, the long range GFS model Wednesday is indicating that lower than normal pressures could lead to additional tropical development in the Gulf during the last week of September...we'll see.