Posted: Aug 5, 2012 6:34 PM by Natalie Noah
Most deep convection is in disorganized patches well to the ENE of Ernesto's center. Dry air in the low to mid levels has been disrupting the activity, thus disorganization over the last several hours. Given the current structure and appearance of the storm, strengthening seem less likely over the next 48 hours. Deceleration has begun as expected and there has been little change to the forecast track. A subtropical ridge held the westward track of Ernesto, the ridge starting to weaken and move further east. This could turn Ernesto WNW within a day or so. Most models do not weaken the ridge enough to allow the WNW turn. Will keep a close watch on current trends.
Switching gears, TS Florence losing momentum as convection has fallen apart and mostly cloud debris remain. Activity is still moving westward. Intensity continues to drop and the system could become a remnant low in a couple days. A WNW track is forecast as the system moves along the SW portion of the subtropical ridge.