Posted: Oct 1, 2013 3:57 PM by Rob Perillo
Updated: Oct 1, 2013 4:13 PM
A weak disorganized area of low pressure (1008mb) in the Western Caribbean between the Cayman Islands and Central America was drifting northwestward near 10mph Tuesday afternoon.
This feature is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday with some tropical development possible as winds aloft become temporarily favorable.
The National Hurricane Center has a medium chance, 50%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone Thursday into Friday.
As has been the case all season long, computer models are at odds with the extent of development and future path of this potential system, but an approaching front this weekend will likely sweep any disturbance and the associated deep tropical moisture toward the Northeastern Gulf this weekend.
The expected front this weekend was looking a little slower per today's models with the cooler air arriving during the day Sunday.
Due to the possibility of slower frontal movement computer models are indicating that areas from New Orleans, Coastal Mississippi & Alabama eastward may get some wet weather by Saturday.
If the front is a little faster, then the tracks will migrate eastward accordingly.
The bottom line for now is that some very wet and unsettled weather will be likely for much of Florida into this weekend.
Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, mainly from Southeast Louisiana coastal waters eastward will likely become rough later this week with tropical showers and storms likely.
The name for the next tropical system in the Atlantic Basin will be "Karen".
For Acadiana, expect the chance of scattered showers and a few storms Wednesday through Saturday but this weather won't be associated with the emerging tropical system/hybrid.
Latest computer models are indicating that following the front morning lows for Monday and Tuesday mornings will likely be in the 50s...something to really look forward to!