Aug 30, 2014 4:08 PM by Rob Perillo

Disturbance in NW Caribbean Heading for Bay of Campeche

Per the National Hurricane Center, a tropical disturbance "99L" in the Northwest Caribbean has a 40% chance of developing early next week as it crosses the Yucatan and heads for the extreme Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche.

The disturbance remained disorganized Saturday afternoon, but was quite robust for a tropical wave.

Development in the near term will be limited as the system nears the Yucatan Peninsula, but after emerging in the Bay of Campeche Monday there will be some limited opportunity for a tropical storm to form.

The GFS and the RPM model favor development in the Bay of Campeche while the Euro Model (which has not been overly superior to the GFS this season) indicates that there may be some slight organization Monday, but is leaning toward development after the system crosses Mexico into the Eastern Pacific.

The tropical models are fairly unanimous in keeping any potential system in the Southern Gulf as high pressure ridging over the Northern Gulf States should keep the disturbance moving generally to the west.

It is not out of the realm of possibility, that some moisture with this system has potential to creep northward along the Texas Coast, perhaps Louisiana, but there is little to no threat for an organized system to migrate much farther north than South Texas at this time.

Interestingly enough, the long-range models keep the Southwestern Gulf rather active into the second week of area to be watched more closely as the peak of hurricane season arrives.

The next named system will be "Dolly".

Tropical Model Plots for 99L:

The RPM Computer Model:


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