Changes in Debby's Forecast Track Likely

Posted: Jun 24, 2012 12:41 PM by Rob Perillo
Updated: Jun 25, 2012 10:50 AM

As Tropical Storm Debby continues to edge northeastward today the greater the chance this system will likely make landfall in Florida.

The tropical models and global forecast models have been having fits with this system as they have disagreed (in a nearly 180 degree direction) on where this system will go.

The upper level winds want to shear the storms at mid- and upper levels to the northeast, while most of the tropical models say the building ridge of high pressure to the north will steer the lower mechanisms of the tropical storm to the west...a weather tug of war.

When systems are developing and lopsided (with all the convection in the eastern quadrant) they are incredibly hard to model such as Debby, throw in subtle and very light steering currents then it becomes anyone's bet.

Today we will watch satellite and radar trends, if there is not a big change in current motion, or a stall...then it will become more likely that the National Hurricane Center will have to do the same and reverse their forecast track more toward Florida...if the system stalls through tomorrow it will be a long week of Debby updates...

Obviously it is impossible to say with any certainty on what impacts, if any, this system will have upon Acadiana based on such an uncertain forecast.

Stay with KATC for the latest and keep track of the latest updates on KATC's Hurricane Center page.